"Immigrants are to blame for housing prices"
If true, prices would have risen between 2007 and 2014..
Correlation ≠ Causation
Two things happening at the same time doesn't mean one causes the other. Housing prices depend on dozens of factors: interest rates, speculation, tourism, social housing supply, available land...
The counter-example: 2007–2014
Foreign population
9.94% → 10.06%
Change: +0.12 pp
Housing price (HPI)
101.1 → 66.1
Change: -35 pts
During the housing crisis, the foreign population stayed high. Prices crashed anyway.
Comparative evolution: Prices vs Immigration (2007–2024)
Sources: INE — IPV (tabla 25171) · INE — Padrón Continuo (tabla 9689)
Red zone: 2007–2014 period where the correlation breaks.
The data doesn't deny that demand affects prices. But immigration is only a small part of demand.
The largest price movements coincide with interest rate changes, speculative bubbles, and housing policy. Not with migration flows.
Factors that do affect the price
- • Tipos de interés (BCE)
- • Oferta de vivienda nueva
- • Especulación y fondos de inversión
- • Vivienda turística (Airbnb)
- • Falta de vivienda social
- • Suelo urbanizable disponible
- • Costes de construcción
Full series 2007–2024
| Year | HPI | % Foreigners |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 165.4 | 14.1% |
| 2023 | 153.1 | 12.37% |
| 2022 | 141.4 | 11.4% |
| 2021 | 130.6 | 11.33% |
| 2020 | 126.9 | 11.04% |
| 2019 | 124.2 | 10.31% |
| 2018 | 118.4 | 9.78% |
| 2017 | 110.8 | 9.5% |
| 2016 | 104.7 | 9.51% |
| 2015 | 100 | 9.59% |
| 2014 | 66.1 | 10.06% |
| 2013 | 66.2 | 10.86% |
| 2012 | 73.7 | 11.18% |
| 2011 | 85.8 | 11.38% |
| 2010 | 91.5 | 11.62% |
| 2009 | 93.2 | 11.65% |
| 2008 | 99.2 | 11.14% |
| 2007 | 101.1 | 9.94% |
About this data
- •CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY CAUSATION: two variables moving together does not mean one causes the other
- •Housing prices depend on many factors: interest rates, supply, speculation, tourism, etc.
- •Between 2007–2014 the foreign population grew while prices FELL (housing crisis)
- •HPI measures actual transaction prices (notarial records), not listing prices
- •Population data excludes undocumented residents
Want to see more data on immigration in Spain? See: "Spain is full of immigrants" →
The data is there. Simple explanations are often incomplete.